InterOuts

Listen To The Article.

South Africa, the Attack Point on the BRICs.

The USA under its new administration led by President Donald Trump has stated quite categorically that it has decided to’punish’the South African economy for transgressing what it has deemed an unacceptable breach of ‘human decency’ and ‘democracy. Given the past 4 years of President Joe Biden’s unflinching support for the reign of terror inflicted on various nations globally either through sanctions, regime change manipulation or ‘hidden’ aid to terrorist groups and other destabalising influences, this really is a bit rich and smacks of the usual American hypocritical attitude based on ‘rules based order’ where the rules suit them and no one else. There are several reasons why the USA has decided to pick on the Republic of South Africa, the purported ‘rainbow nation’ of Africa (I say purported because xenophobia is a very real problem here). However, given that South Africa suffers from endemic corruption pervading every level of society and its infrastructure is crumbling and continuously failing to provide adequate uninterrupted service, attacking it in this way will only speed up its collapse which is quite possibly fairly immanent as it lurches from crisis to crisis, whatever the government likes to say. This will suit the USA greatly and allow it to gain favourably in all matters at South Africa’s expense

The reasons given by the USA for reproaching South Africa and placing various economic restrictions on it are given by the USA as being fully the result of the ANC government’s decision to finally bring into Law the appropriation of property that is owned mainly by South African citizens of European origin, namely the group known as Afrikaners, who are 7.3% of the population and whose assets comprise 45+ % of the privately owned wealth of the nation (Figures from the Federal reserve 2023). There are legitimate claims against various commercial entities and private citizens whose economic prowess is definitely due to extremely unfair business practices, prevalent at the time the land was taken and its inherent wealth, mineral or otherwise when it was developed and so became their property. All of this is to be expected when the fact that the majority people of South Africa, the native population, the Africans, had their land seized by force, guile and downright dishonesty. What must also be taken into account is that the original inhabitants of what is now South Africa are the San or Koi San people who were the only homo sapiens present until both the Africans and the Europeans arrived and began to appropriate territory. They have never been given any real measurable share of South Africa’s wealth or true political representation nor any recognition of their inalienable right to be considered as the true ‘owners’ of South Africa. It is of course a can of worms and South Africa’s ‘Truth Commission’ which formulated and achieved astounding results after the end of Apartheid, has shown that the obvious course of action is for South Africa’s majority to have clear discussions with those at the receiving end, the Afrikaners and the San people as to how to openly and transparently reach a workable solution. This is the reason given by the Trump administration as to why they are turning the screws on South Africa. However, it is a very useful and expedient means to bring into play the background agenda of the United States with a ‘valid’ congruent reason or ‘excuse’ if you prefer to back it up.

The USA has a rather pressing economic problem. It has a debt of 34 + Trillion Dollars with a interest payment annually of 1.4 Trillion dollars and a failing economy with much of its infrastructure (roads, bridges, services and power systems mainly due to lack of funding and corruption) in various states of decay and requiring upgrading let alone repair and maintenance. Add to this a very alarming decay in society with rampant crime and a highly visible lack of ‘civil’ society with the downgrading of many urban areas as so unsafe and unpleasantly decayed as to be avoided. America’s cities, towns and urban areas have become no go areas for many people with the resulting lessening in investment and interaction with the general population making it a downward spiral. On top of this, America has fallen behind in various aspects of military technology and tactics and its military machine needs to be overhauled and streamlined as does its nuclear arsenal which is aged and ringing alarm bells. There is also the need to upgrade, update and increase America’s manufacturing base as many of the plants have long been closed due to relocating the actual manufacturing process overseas (India, China, Taiwan,etc.) in order to increase profit margins. This is a monumental undertaking and will require a very large amount of finance to pay for it with costs rising due to inflation and worse still, the possibility of the Dollar’s drop in value on the international exchanges so adding even more to the cost.

Unfortunately there is the usual caveat of ‘How much and how to ‘earn’ the money to pay for all of this to be done’. America’s manufacturing base is not healthy, they need time and investment to reassert themselves in the production of goods as the needed skills and means of production are not able to scale up quickly and some of the infrastructure needed to supply them with power and transportation is not up to scratch at the best. Poor President Trump, he inherited an America which was allowed to collapse by the previous administration both physically and economically making it very necessary to overcome the debt problem and increase the income entering the USA. He has said that America has until summer to clear up the financial situation and the chasing after repayment from Ukraine shows with the pressure being placed on the NATO member states to pay more for its functions that the USA needs to balance the books pronto. The obvious inference is that either insolvency or severe downgrading of all essential services would have to follow and a belt tightening period would ensue, not something any politician wants to do and to be avoided unless it’s a call to war. The western model of capitalism is really only colonialism with a fresh visage, and is based on centuries of dishonest business practices, theft, expropriation and legal sleight of hand giving a vast profit to them at the expense of the producers of the raw materials, goods, labour and on. The dominating western hegemony is based on brute force masquerading as military might to ensure ‘peace ‘and has ensured the west’s dominance globally in the standard of living and production of goods and services, all of which are paid for by the manipulation of every aspect of international trade they are either involved directly in or perceive as being essential for their wellbeing both in the immediate as well as the long term. The misuse of the Dollar as a political tool along with sanctions and the USAID funded NGO’s, NPO’s and mainstream media has caused the rest of the world not subject fully to American (and western) hegemony to start to break free of dependence on the Dollar as well as western markets as shown by Russia, China, Iran and much of the Global South. This has been done through the implementation of different methods of financial, economic and political interaction leading to the creation of the BRICs, ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations), SAARC (the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), SCO (Shanghai Cooperative association) and others.

This does not bode well for America to achieve its goals as the amount of trade with the major players has decreased substantially with China’s trade with the USA amounting to only 3.7% of GDP. Other nations like India and much of Africa, the Far East and South America are preferring to deal in their own currencies which give them greater profit margins without resort to western financial systems or negative business contracts so ensuring mutual benefit, not just a one sided flow to the USA. The BRICs will according to all the economic and financial gurus of the West itself be beyond control via the use of sanctions against them in 5 years approximately with many of the smaller players falling into line with this in only 1 or 2 years later. So all these organisations which are based on mutual respect and understanding, not orders given from above, pose a very palpable and real threat to the financial validity of the United States as well as the western nations and vassal states of the USA and the uninterrupted flow of raw materials and goods at very low prices.

South Africa being a founder member of the BRICs is in many ways a key entry point into Africa as a whole since it is the route by which the Democratic Republic of Congo and other nations in Southern Africa move a large amount of the raw materials essential in the production of military and industrial technology of the USA and the West. Africa as a whole, not just Francophone Africa, is moving away from the West’s control and lining up to join the BRICs (Kenya is not happy with the UK’s relationship with it) while increasing their supply of raw materials to other nations outside of western markets and commencing refining and the production of end products, meaning less raw materials for the west to purchase, only the end product at a substantially increased cost. This is a factor which diminishes the usage of the US Dollar and increases costs overall meaning a diminishing profit so the USA has to demonstrate the cost of leaving the fold so to speak. What better way than to visibly punish South Africa for perceived transgressions and send a clear message to all of Africa’s nations that the USA still runs the show and will not accept changes it deems are detrimental to itself, especially if they benefit the producer nation rather than the United States. South Africa can now start to expect to feel the financial economic pinch, the downturn in GDP as exports become subject to tariffs as well as the loss of favoured nation status with reduced quotas and so making their exports more expensive for the US to import leading to reduced demand. The World Bank, the IMF (international Monetary Fund) and other financial institutions like the Stock markets, Insurance and access to the leading financial houses and western banking system will not be as easy to deal with as many unforeseen obstacles will be placed in South Africa’s way. This will limit South Africa’s ability to borrow, arrange currency exchanges at low margins and ultimately, the nation’s credit rating will start to drop. Add to this a possible series of sanctions on the newest technology, industrial equipment, military armaments and medical supplies as well as educational material and the most damning in the long term, the cutting off of scientific data and information so that South Africa’s knowledge base remains behind and innovation starts to slow down appreciably. There is a good possibility that the South African education system will improve without the input of the USA/UK and western educational services as it will be less colonial based and will start to pay more attention to the rest of history from a global perspective as has happened in the former Francophone nations in Africa. This has led to a complete reappraisal of all aspects of life and its machinery with a growing awareness of the colonial input in every system that encompasses the workings of a nation and its replacement by systems that benefit the people and the nation, not the former colonial power.

As for the political angles, as we all know, any population will endure a certain amount of hardship for a determinate period of time but eventually discontent, always rumbling in the background, will grow into a roar with the ensuing social collapse and all that implies. Regime change at its best, with ready and prepared political groups entering the arena and promising an end to all the problems by overturning the Law regarding Land Appropriation and softening the stance on Israel while moving away from Russia, China and finally the BRICs. The outcome is now in the hands of the South African government and naturally, the ANC (African National Congress) the ruling party whose numbers mean the coalition is under their control to a large degree, are in the firing line with President Cyril Ramaphosa in the headlights. The US Administration (irrelevant of who was President at the time) has always disliked the ANC because it has had limited control over their decisions on foreign affairs and interior politics despite the usual USAID funded NGO’s, NPO’s and semi disguised help in the form of organisations providing education, social advice and helping to run the services and all other manner of the US soft, long term approaches to maintaining control. This is something we see President Trump and his team, especially Elon Musk and Vance, call Europe, the UK and others out about but still enact the same procedures in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and South American nations like Brazil and Venezuela. The regime change machine has long been operating undercover in South Africa and is only waiting for the right moment and the go ahead from the US ‘Deep State’ machinery. It has successfully sown discord between the ANC and the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) who were originally part of the ANC and started out as its Youth wing. The USA (and the United Kingdom) have always been a major factor underpinning the DA (Democratic Alliance), a ‘conservative’ ( read neocon/hegemonist) political party whose support comes from a not insignificant number of South Africans , the majority of whom are of European origin. Race is still very much of an issue in South Africa and the wounds are deep from the Apartheid era with the Coloureds (Mixed race) and Indians not particularly liked or trusted by the African majority as they had favoured status during the apartheid era. The DA will be very pleased by this state of affairs given that it follows the USA’s line on Israel and other foreign policy issues including in the past, support for Ukraine and a virulent anti Russia and China stance .They will closely enact a pro western government if they can form a working coalition or gain enough support but without a major loss in the numbers of the Members of Parliament representing the ANC and the EFF, this will not occur. Without a major shift in the voting patterns of South Africa’s majority electorate, which are still to a large extent based on cultural and tribal/ethnic values, this will not happen and the DA (Democratic Alliance) will still remain a marginal 3rd political party. However, given the USA’s continuing regime change agenda when the elected party in any nation will not abide by their rules, they will definitely try to implement discord within the electorate and abet the DA as much as possible.

Since the new administration in the USA has to balance the books so to speak and prepare the ground for the future with a secured supply of raw materials and essential minerals, it will have no choice but try to sow discord in South Africa as a way of attempting to ensure problems for the BRICs and for those African nations who have the audacity to prefer doing business with Russia, China, India and the rest of the Global South. We will have to expect the usual measures that the USA will implement but also a new play book will come into the arena as the events in Georgia and other nations like Venezuela and Far Eastern countries have shown that the tried and tested methods they employed are no longer sufficient to ensure success.